Archive
Published research.
Notes are published on Substack. Weekly work sits alongside monthly deep dives; closed positions are reviewed in Portfolio Notes.
Industry NoteORCL
What the Bond Market Knows: Credit Is Repricing the AI Buildout Before Equity Does
Oracle's CDS doubled while the equity consensus held Strong Buy. A framework for reading the debt-funded AI buildout through the credit market.
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Research NoteNOW
ServiceNow: The Business Got Better. The Multiple Didn't.
A business that improved on every metric while its multiple compressed 78% from its three-year average.
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Research NoteNOKIA
Nokia: The Western AI Infrastructure Re-Rating
Why the market is underweighting the AI infrastructure exposure inside Nokia's mix.
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Catalyst Calendar
Upcoming catalysts.
- JUL222026NOW·Q2 2026 earningsPast
The next datable test of the ServiceNow thesis.
- JUL232026NOKIA·Q2 2026 earningsPast
The next datable test of the Nokia research note.
- JUL292026ORCL·Hyperscaler capex prints — Microsoft & Meta reportPast
First live test of the credit-repricing framework from the Oracle Industry Note.
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