NOW
ServiceNow
Entry
$93.46Last
$93.46Since pub.
0.00%Independent Equity Research
Mispriced companies. Datable catalysts. Asymmetric setups.
Most equity research is opinion. Some of it is data. Very little of it is discipline.
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Answers grounded in published Spinel notes only.
Answers are generated from published Spinel notes only. Not investment advice.
2
Published notes
1
Active thesis
12–24M
Horizon
3:1
Minimum asymmetry
Model Portfolio
Every thesis, tracked.
Active
| Ticker | Company | Published | Entry | Last | Since pub. | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOW | ServiceNow | $93.46 | $93.46 | 0.00% | Active |
Prices as of June 25, 2026. Not real-time.
Three pillars.
The discipline
01 — Contrarian
Mispricing from the collapse of attention
When coverage thins and attention moves elsewhere, price detaches from the business. The edge is the absence of competition for information, not a posture of disagreement.
02 — Catalyst-driven
A datable reason to be right
A cheap stock without a catalyst is a value trap. Every thesis identifies a specific event, with a stated horizon, capable of forcing the market to re-price.
03 — Asymmetry
The only acceptable shape of a position
A written, bounded downside; an upside of at least three times the downside on the stated horizon. Positions that do not clear this bar are not written about.
Published research.
Full archive →New notes are published on Substack. Weekly work, monthly deep dives.